Precious Metals and Crude Oil

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On February 10, the early hours of trading in Asia saw gold prices initially dip due to a surge in the US dollar, with prices falling to approximately $2854.72 per ounce. However, the situation quickly rebounded, and by midday, gold was trading around $2872.25 per ounce, marking a modest increase of about 0.22%. This fluctuation was partly influenced by the announcement from the United States that it would impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, leading to a temporary pressure on gold prices. Yet, the allure of gold as a safe haven remained strong, resulting in increased buying activity that supported the price.

Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe haven investment during periods of political and financial uncertainty. However, recent trends in the rebound of the US dollar and US Treasury yields have made some gold investors cautious. Strong employment data and a drop in unemployment rates suggest a robust labor market, even though the overall job growth fell short of economists' expectations. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond increased by 5.1 basis points to 4.489% last Friday, while the dollar index rose by 0.37% to close at 108.10.

In addition to the shifts in gold, the US Department of Labor reported that the economy added 143,000 jobs in January, falling short of the expected 170,000. The unemployment rate stood at 4%, which was slightly better than the anticipated 4.1%. These figures could provide the Federal Reserve with justification to pause interest rate cuts until at least June. Furthermore, the University of Michigan's survey revealed an unexpected drop in the consumer confidence index for February, reaching a seven-month low. Concerns about tariffs leading to rising prices have caused consumer inflation expectations to soar to their highest level in over a year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that in the twelve months leading up to March, the total job creation in the US economy was estimated to be 598,000 less than previously thought.

Three Federal Reserve officials expressed last Friday that the US job market remains solid, highlighting the uncertainties surrounding how policy changes will affect economic growth and persistent inflation. This reinforces their cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Traders of short-term interest rate futures are now predicting that the Fed will likely only reduce rates once this year, with the expectations of a June rate cut dropping from around 63% before these data releases to just above 50% afterward.

In analyzing the gold market for February 10, prices opened around $2856. Throughout the Asian trading session, there was a slight upward movement. European trading maintained this volatility within a narrow range, and upon the beginning of the US session, gold surged, reaching a new historical high around $2887 before retreating. By the end of the day, gold showed signs of reversing some gains, characterized by a long upper shadow in the candlestick pattern. The Bollinger Bands suggest an upward trend, with ongoing low-level rebounds. The moving averages (MA5 and MA10) continue to indicate a diverging upward trajectory, yet the MACD indicator is showing a gradual decline in momentum. Thus, the overall short-term strategy appears cautious, watching for resistance levels for potential selling opportunities.

For gold trading strategies on February 10, traders could adopt the following approaches: short positions can be considered near the 2875-2877 levels, with a stop-loss at $6.5 and targets set at $2860, $2836, and $2810. If prices approach the 2890-2892 vicinity, another short position could be initiated, again with the same stop-loss and a target range below $2876 and $2850. Conversely, buying could be favorable around $2810-2812, targeting upwards to $2825 and $2840.

Turning to silver and its movements on the same day, prices opened near $32.22, showing minor fluctuations during the Asian and European sessions. As the US market opened, silver prices continued to rise, hitting an intra-day high of $32.65, before sharply retracting by the end of the day, resulting in a significant bearish candlestick. The macro view suggests an upward trend when analyzed through Bollinger Bands, with the market meeting resistance near the upper band. The indicators point towards a high probability of price corrections occurring, emphasizing short positions as a wise tactic in the immediate term.

For silver trading recommendations on February 10, traders could look to short positions near $32.00-$32.18, with a stop-loss set at $32.36 and targets ranging from $31.53 to $30.36. Any tests of $32.63-$32.78 could also present short opportunities with similar stop-loss protocols, targeting $32.00-$31.48. Additionally, for any movements below $30.35-$30.46, longing positions may be warranted, targeting $31 to $31.53 upward.

Finally, oil saw its trading open around $70.5, experiencing some upward momentum during the Asian hours, and continued the upward trajectory in Europe. However, as US trading commenced, oil prices encountered some volatility and retracted slightly, still resulting in a minor uptick by day's end. Analyzing the situation through Bollinger Bands indicates a consolidating range, with the moving averages showing divergence towards a downward trend. Nonetheless, short-term indicators suggest bullish trading positions may become favorable as longer-term trends evolve.

For oil trading strategies, positions could be created near $70.8-$71, with a stop-loss of $70 and price targets ranging up to $72.5-$74.8. In scenarios where prices test around $69.4-$69.6, long positions may also be validated, aiming for $71-$72.7. If oil prices approach $73.8-$74, strategic shorting may be initiated, with stop-loss set at $75, targeting downward movements to $72.6-$71.

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