Precious Metals and Crude Oil
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On February 10, the early hours of trading in Asia saw gold prices initially dip due to a surge in the US dollar, with prices falling to approximately $2854.72 per ounceHowever, the situation quickly rebounded, and by midday, gold was trading around $2872.25 per ounce, marking a modest increase of about 0.22%. This fluctuation was partly influenced by the announcement from the United States that it would impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports, leading to a temporary pressure on gold pricesYet, the allure of gold as a safe haven remained strong, resulting in increased buying activity that supported the price.
Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe haven investment during periods of political and financial uncertaintyHowever, recent trends in the rebound of the US dollar and US Treasury yields have made some gold investors cautiousStrong employment data and a drop in unemployment rates suggest a robust labor market, even though the overall job growth fell short of economists' expectationsThe yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond increased by 5.1 basis points to 4.489% last Friday, while the dollar index rose by 0.37% to close at 108.10.
In addition to the shifts in gold, the US Department of Labor reported that the economy added 143,000 jobs in January, falling short of the expected 170,000. The unemployment rate stood at 4%, which was slightly better than the anticipated 4.1%. These figures could provide the Federal Reserve with justification to pause interest rate cuts until at least JuneFurthermore, the University of Michigan's survey revealed an unexpected drop in the consumer confidence index for February, reaching a seven-month lowConcerns about tariffs leading to rising prices have caused consumer inflation expectations to soar to their highest level in over a yearThe Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that in the twelve months leading up to March, the total job creation in the US economy was estimated to be 598,000 less than previously thought.
Three Federal Reserve officials expressed last Friday that the US job market remains solid, highlighting the uncertainties surrounding how policy changes will affect economic growth and persistent inflation
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This reinforces their cautious stance on interest rate cutsTraders of short-term interest rate futures are now predicting that the Fed will likely only reduce rates once this year, with the expectations of a June rate cut dropping from around 63% before these data releases to just above 50% afterward.
In analyzing the gold market for February 10, prices opened around $2856. Throughout the Asian trading session, there was a slight upward movementEuropean trading maintained this volatility within a narrow range, and upon the beginning of the US session, gold surged, reaching a new historical high around $2887 before retreatingBy the end of the day, gold showed signs of reversing some gains, characterized by a long upper shadow in the candlestick patternThe Bollinger Bands suggest an upward trend, with ongoing low-level reboundsThe moving averages (MA5 and MA10) continue to indicate a diverging upward trajectory, yet the MACD indicator is showing a gradual decline in momentumThus, the overall short-term strategy appears cautious, watching for resistance levels for potential selling opportunities.
For gold trading strategies on February 10, traders could adopt the following approaches: short positions can be considered near the 2875-2877 levels, with a stop-loss at $6.5 and targets set at $2860, $2836, and $2810. If prices approach the 2890-2892 vicinity, another short position could be initiated, again with the same stop-loss and a target range below $2876 and $2850. Conversely, buying could be favorable around $2810-2812, targeting upwards to $2825 and $2840.
Turning to silver and its movements on the same day, prices opened near $32.22, showing minor fluctuations during the Asian and European sessionsAs the US market opened, silver prices continued to rise, hitting an intra-day high of $32.65, before sharply retracting by the end of the day, resulting in a significant bearish candlestick
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